Skip to content
BackGOD PLAYS DICE™Big questions, honest answers

THE QUESTION LIBRARY EXTRAORDINARY CLAIMS

Can animals sense earthquakes or storms before they happen?

Can animals sense earthquakes or storms? Separate early-wave detection and observed storm avoidance from reliable prediction, with evidence and limits.

THE SHORT ANSWER

Some animals can respond to environmental signals before people notice danger, but that is not the same as reliably predicting a future disaster. Earthquake waves can reach animals before humans feel stronger shaking; the earthquake has already begun. Storm-avoidance observations also exist. Longer-range earthquake prediction from animal behavior remains unestablished, and the senses or mechanisms behind particular observations need careful testing.

  • An early reaction can detect a disaster already underway.
  • Storm avoidance observations do not prove the sensory mechanism.
  • A useful forecast must count false alarms and missed events.
On this page

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW YET

Which signals caused particular animal responses, how broadly storm-avoidance behavior occurs, and whether prospective earthquake-monitoring rules could outperform chance while limiting false alarms.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS ANSWER

Successful independent, prospective prediction tests at multiple locations, together with controlled evidence identifying the sensed signals, would strengthen the forecasting claims.

The important distinction is between sensing something happening now and predicting something that has not begun. An animal reacting before a person notices a hazard might be detecting a real signal. That would be interesting biology, without requiring knowledge of the future.

Earthquakes and storms also need separate answers. A distant storm can already be generating signals before its dangerous weather reaches a particular location.

THE LONG ANSWER

Free long answer 1 of 3 this month.

Seconds before shaking: early detection

The U.S. Geological Survey explains that some animals can feel the faster, smaller P waves before the larger S waves arrive and before people notice the shaking. The earthquake has already started at its source. This is a possible explanation for a reaction seconds before stronger shaking, not a prediction days ahead.

The agency distinguishes these responses from claims of much earlier warnings. Its assessment says that consistent, reliable animal behavior before seismic events, with an established explanatory mechanism, remains elusive. That does not prove every reported incident is invented or that detecting earlier signals is impossible.

What about animals becoming restless hours earlier?

A 2020 study continuously monitored cows, dogs and sheep around an Italian earthquake sequence. Researchers reported patterns of increased activity preceding earthquakes while the animals were inside a stable, but not on pasture. They proposed further monitoring as a possible route toward short-term forecasting.

This is a research claim worth testing, rather than an established alarm system. Findings from one farm and a particular earthquake sequence do not by themselves demonstrate reliable prediction at new locations. The setting-dependent result also matters: “farm animals sometimes showed a pattern under these conditions” is narrower than “animals know when an earthquake is coming.”

Storms: an intriguing bird observation

A paper published online in 2014 and in a 2015 issue of Current Biology tracked five male golden-winged warblers in Tennessee. They left breeding territories more than a day before a severe storm arrived and returned afterward.

The authors proposed distant, low-frequency sound as a likely cue, while retaining other possibilities. They did not experimentally establish what the birds sensed. This was one storm and a small tracked sample, so it does not show that all birds, pets or other animals forecast every storm.

Notice what “before” means here: before the storm reached the birds’ location. The weather system was already developing elsewhere. Detecting a distant event is different from predicting its formation from nothing.

What would turn a promising pattern into a forecast?

A useful test would define the animal behavior and warning window in advance, then record continuously. It must count false alarms—unusual behavior without a disaster—and missed events, when a disaster happens without the behavior.

Imagine a dog barking before one earthquake. That observation alone leaves unanswered how often the dog barks on ordinary days. A prediction method needs both kinds of records, plus testing on future events that were not used to choose its rules.

The evidence supports curiosity about animal sensing. It does not justify treating a pet’s behavior as a dependable substitute for official warnings. For the wider question of interpreting other creatures’ experiences, see animal minds.

THREE THINGS TO REMEMBER

  1. An early reaction can detect a disaster already underway.
  2. Storm avoidance observations do not prove the sensory mechanism.
  3. A useful forecast must count false alarms and missed events.
Words worth knowing (3)
P wave
A fast-traveling seismic compression wave that can arrive before stronger shaking.
Infrasound
Sound at frequencies below the usual range of human hearing.
Prospective test
A test whose rules are set before observing the future events it aims to predict.

Sources & further reading

(3) · Checked Oct 5, 2026
  1. Animals & Earthquake Prediction ↗U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Hazards ProgramOfficial assessment distinguishes P-wave detection from unestablished longer-range prediction.
  2. Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring ↗Ethology, Wiley2020 observational monitoring reports anticipatory activity under particular farm conditions and proposes additional work toward forecasting.
  3. Tornadic Storm Avoidance Behavior in Breeding Songbirds ↗Current Biology; primary paper hosted by lead author2014 online/2015 issue observation of five warblers; infrasound is a proposed cue, not experimentally confirmed sensing.

See a mistake? Report a problem. Corrections are made openly.

The Architect AI companion · All Access

Your next question can go further.

Included with All Access →Up to 5 questions a day while available.

Put God Plays Dice on your Home Screen

On iPhone: tap Share (on iOS 26, tap ••• first), then Add to Home Screen, then Add.

On Android: In Chrome, you can also open the ⋮ menu and choose Add to Home screen or Install.

The Home Screen version keeps its own memory on iPhone, so your nights and saved answers start fresh there.

Search the Question Library

149 answers to read · 0 questions awaiting answers Your search runs on your device.

Answers about death, grief and crisis are always free, in full. If a question is personal right now →