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Saturday, September 26, 202668 days to the Dice Letter centennialNo physics degree or shared belief required.
GOD PLAYS DICE™The magazine of big questions

THE QUESTION LIBRARY GOD & BELIEF

Why do bad things happen to good people?

Science can explain how many bad things happen but not the deepest why, so here is what believers, skeptics and researchers each bring to one of the oldest hard questions.

A painting of a thin, gray-bearded man sitting bare-chested on the ground in a rocky valley. A woman sits behind him with her head in her hand, an older man sits hunched nearby, and two men in bright robes stand close by, looking on.
Ilya Repin painted Job and His Friends in 1869. In the Book of Job, a friend asks what innocent person ever perishes, and at the end God says the friends have not spoken rightly.Ilya Repin, Job and His Friends (1869), Russian Museum, Saint Petersburg, via Wikimedia Commons · Public domainImage source ↗

THE SHORT ANSWER

Nobody has a final answer, but part of the question can be answered. Many bad things come from chance, disease, nature or other people’s choices, and none of these check whether a person is good. The deeper why, whether suffering has a purpose and why a loving God would allow it, is beyond science. Believers and skeptics have offered serious answers for centuries. None has convinced everyone.

  • In a 2021 Pew survey, 86% of U.S. adults said “sometimes bad things just happen” fits their views at least somewhat well.
  • In the same survey, 80% of Americans were believers who said most suffering comes from people, not from God.
  • Only 15% of believers said they sometimes see the world’s suffering as a sign that there is no God.
  • Many philosophers agree that evil does not logically rule out God, but they still argue over whether it makes God less likely.
  • A 2017 study estimated that random copying errors cause about two-thirds of the gene changes in human cancers, though other scientists dispute how much of cancer is luck.

WHERE THE EVIDENCE STANDS

How sure are we?

  • EstablishedMost Americans see bad things as partly a matter of chance.Pew Research Center survey of 6,485 U.S. adults (Sept. 2021): 44% say “sometimes bad things just happen” describes their views very well and 42% somewhat well.
  • Supported, still debatedRandom chance plays a large part in some illnesses, such as cancer.Tomasetti, Li and Vogelstein (Science, 2017): random DNA copying errors cause about two-thirds of the mutations in human cancers. Wu and colleagues (Nature, 2016) argue that outside factors shape most cancer risk.
  • Supported, still debatedPeople sometimes think less of innocent victims, which may help them keep believing the world is fair.Lerner and Simmons (1966) first showed the effect; a 2020 meta-analysis of 55 experiments (Dawtry and colleagues) found larger effects in real, vivid settings and less consistent results in recent studies.
  • Not supportedThe existence of evil proves, by logic alone, that God cannot exist.The Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy reports it is widely agreed that Alvin Plantinga’s free will defense describes a logically possible way for God and evil to coexist; J. L. Mackie, who made the logical argument, conceded this.
  • Beyond scienceSuffering has a hidden purpose, or suffering shows there is no God.The U.S. National Academies say science can neither prove nor disprove religion and cannot test supernatural possibilities. The Stanford and Internet encyclopedias of philosophy present both sides as live debates.
What the labels mean

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW YET

Nobody knows whether suffering serves a purpose we cannot see. Scientists still debate how much illness and misfortune comes down to pure chance. Most of the survey numbers here come from the United States.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS ANSWER

A new argument about suffering that convinced most believers and skeptics alike would change this answer. Better studies could change what this page says about chance, fairness and victim blaming.

If you are asking this after a loss, a hard diagnosis or a very hard year, you are not alone, and this page will not rush you. Go gently. Take what helps and leave the rest.

Almost everyone asks this at some point. In a 2021 Pew Research Center survey, 61% of U.S. adults said they had thought at least some in the past year about big questions, such as why terrible things happen to people. The question is also very old. The Bible’s Book of Job tells of a good man who loses nearly everything, and thinkers have argued about it for centuries.

Part of the question has an answer. Many bad things come from causes that do not check whether a person is good: chance, disease, storms, accidents and other people’s choices. Researchers estimate, for example, that about two-thirds of the gene changes found in human cancers come from random copying errors when healthy cells divide, though other scientists argue that outside causes matter more. Most Americans agree that luck plays a part. In the same Pew survey, 86% said “sometimes bad things just happen” fits their views at least somewhat well.

The deeper part has no settled answer. If a loving, all-powerful God exists, why allow so much suffering? Philosophers call this the problem of evil. Believers have offered serious answers. Free will makes both goodness and harm possible. Hardship can build character. God’s reasons may be more than human minds can see. Skeptics reply that the amount of pain in the world, including the pain of children and animals, is hard to square with a loving God. Other traditions, such as Buddhism, start from a different place: suffering is part of life, and the task is to understand it and work to end it.

This page lays out those answers fairly. It will not tell you which one is right. That part of the question is Beyond science, and it is yours to weigh.

THE LONG ANSWER

What is the “problem of evil”?

The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy describes the problem of evil as the puzzle of explaining evil in a world made by a God who is all-powerful, all-knowing and all-good. Philosophers sort evil into two kinds. Moral evil comes from people’s choices or carelessness, like murder or lying. Natural evil is harm that no one intended, like a hurricane or a toothache.

The 18th-century British philosopher David Hume wrote a dialogue in which a character named Philo says that “Epicurus’s old questions are yet unanswered.” Is God willing to stop evil, but not able? Then God is not all-powerful. Able, but not willing? Then God is not good. Both able and willing? Then where does evil come from? (Hume, Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion, Part X.)

Today there are two main versions. The logical problem says that God and evil cannot both exist. In 1955 the philosopher J. L. Mackie argued just that. The evidential problem makes a softer claim: evil does not rule God out, but it makes God less likely. In 1979 the philosopher William Rowe offered a famous example. Lightning starts a forest fire, and a fawn is trapped. It lies burned and in terrible pain for several days before it dies. What good, Rowe asked, could justify that? He did not claim he could prove the fawn’s pain was pointless. He argued that it probably was (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy).

How do believers answer it?

Free will. The philosopher Alvin Plantinga argued that a world with truly free creatures is a great good. But whether free people always choose what is right is not up to God alone. So God may not be able to remove the chance of evil without losing that greater good (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy). It is widely agreed that this shows God and evil can exist together without a logical contradiction. Even Mackie, a leading atheist philosopher, granted that much. Critics reply that free will does not explain earthquakes or disease, and that almost everyone thinks we should stop a murderer if we can (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy).

Soul-making. The philosopher John Hick argued that the world is a place where people can grow. Goodness built by facing real trials and temptations, he wrote, is richer than goodness handed out ready-made. A world of constant pleasure would do less to build it. Critics ask about suffering that crushes people instead of growing them, and about animals and small children who suffer with no chance to grow from it.

Skeptical theism. In 1984 the philosopher Stephen Wykstra brought back an older idea: if God exists, we should not expect to see all of God’s reasons. One analogy is a baby, who cannot judge a parent’s plans for its life. Compared with God, our minds may be like that baby’s (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy). Critics worry that this goes too far. If we can never tell when suffering is pointless, why try to prevent it? Skeptical theists reply, and the debate goes on.

Some believers find these answers too neat. Plantinga himself wrote that most attempts to explain God’s reasons strike him as “tepid, shallow and ultimately frivolous.” Rabbi Harold Kushner, whose young son had a disease that would take his life, took another path in his 1981 bestseller, When Bad Things Happen to Good People. He wrote that God would like people to get what they deserve, but cannot always arrange it (NPR).

Scripture itself pushes back on one common answer, that suffering is a punishment. In the Book of Job, a “blameless and upright” man loses his herds, his servants and his children. A friend asks him what innocent person ever perishes. At the end, God tells the friends they have “not spoken rightly.” In the Gospels, Jesus says a man was not born blind because he or his parents sinned (John 9:2–3). He also says the 18 people killed when a tower fell were no guiltier than anyone else in Jerusalem (Luke 13:4–5). The Quran says people will be tested with fear, hunger and loss, and it gives good news to those who stay steadfast (2:155–156).

What do skeptics and other traditions say?

For someone who does not believe in God, the question changes shape. It is no longer “Why does God allow this?” but “Where does this come from, and what can we do about it?” In Pew’s survey, 68% of atheists and 61% of agnostics said “sometimes bad things just happen” fits their views very well. Some philosophers, like Rowe, argue that the suffering in the world makes it unlikely that God exists.

Other traditions ask less why suffering is allowed and more how to face it.

In the Buddha’s first teaching, the first “noble truth” is that birth, aging, death, sorrow, pain and separation from those we love are stressful. The second names craving as its source. The third and fourth say it can end, and describe the path. A short handbook of the Stoic teacher Epictetus, put together by his student Arrian, opens with this line: “There are things which are within our power, and there are things which are beyond our power.” Our bodies, property and reputation are beyond it. Our opinions, aims and desires are within it (Enchiridion).

What can science say about luck and fairness?

Science cannot say whether suffering has a purpose, but it can say how harm is spread and how we react to it.

Chance is real. In 2015, the researchers Cristian Tomasetti and Bert Vogelstein reported that cancer risk in different tissues closely tracks how many times the cells that renew each tissue divide, and they called much of it “bad luck.” A 2016 study pushed back, arguing that outside factors shape most cancer risk. In a 2017 study, Tomasetti, Vogelstein and a colleague found the same link for 17 cancer types in 69 countries. They also estimated that random copying errors cause about two-thirds of the gene changes in human cancers. The debate is not settled, and the 2017 paper still stressed prevention and early detection. Ecclesiastes put it long ago: “time and chance happeneth to them all” (Ecclesiastes 9:11, in a 1917 Jewish translation). Our story Is the Universe Truly Random? explores what chance means in physics.

We are built to care about fairness. In a 2003 study, capuchin monkeys refused to take part in trades with a human when they saw a partner get a better reward for the same effort. In a 2015 study of 866 pairs of children aged 4 to 15 in seven societies, children in every society had begun to reject deals that gave a peer more by middle childhood. Researchers think this sense of fairness helps us cooperate and may have deep roots in evolution.

What do people often get wrong? A common mistake is to assume people get what they deserve. In a 1966 experiment, the psychologists Melvin Lerner and Carolyn Simmons had people watch a woman who seemed to get painful shocks. Those who expected her pain to go on rated her as less likable than those told it had ended. Lerner’s explanation, called just-world theory, is that people want to believe the world is fair, so they may think less of a victim to protect that belief. A 2020 analysis of 55 experiments found bigger effects when the suffering seemed real and vivid, though recent studies have been less consistent. Few Americans see suffering as mostly punishment: just 4% are believers who say all or most of it is a punishment from God.

Where can people of faith and skeptics agree?

  • Suffering is not a verdict on the person suffering. Job’s friends were rebuked, Jesus rejected the idea, and research on victim blaming shows why it tempts us.
  • Chance is part of life. Most Americans, religious or not, say bad things sometimes just happen. Ecclesiastes said so too.
  • Honesty about limits helps. Plantinga admits he cannot see God’s reasons for specific evils. Rowe admitted he could not prove the fawn’s pain was pointless.
  • How we respond matters. In Pew’s survey, 71% said news of terrible events often makes them grateful for the good in their own lives, and 4 in 10 said it often makes them want to help. Kushner wrote that we can always control how we respond.

How can you check this yourself?

  • Read the arguments at full strength. The Stanford and Internet encyclopedias of philosophy have free articles on the problem of evil that present both sides.
  • Read the old texts. In the Book of Job, compare what the friends claim in chapter 4 with what God tells them in chapter 42.
  • Watch the word “luck.” The cancer debate is about what share of gene changes or risk is random across large groups, not about any one person. Read the 2017 Science paper and the 2016 Nature study side by side.

The answer stays the same. Science can explain a great deal about how bad things happen. Why they happen, in the deepest sense, remains Beyond science, and thoughtful people still disagree.

THREE THINGS TO REMEMBER

  1. Much suffering comes from chance, nature and human choices, none of which check whether a person is good.
  2. Believers and skeptics both have serious answers to the problem of evil, and none has convinced everyone.
  3. Suffering is not proof that someone did something wrong.

WORDS WORTH KNOWING

Problem of evil
The puzzle of how an all-powerful, all-knowing and all-good God could allow evil and suffering.
Moral evil and natural evil
Moral evil comes from people’s choices or carelessness, like murder or lying. Natural evil is harm no one intended, like a hurricane or a toothache.
Theodicy
An attempt to explain why God allows evil. A defense is more modest: it only tries to show that God and evil could both exist.
Skeptical theism
The view that, if God exists, humans should not expect to see all of God’s reasons for allowing suffering.
Just-world theory
The psychologist Melvin Lerner’s idea that people want to believe the world is fair, and may blame victims to protect that belief.

Sources & further reading

  1. Few Americans Blame God or Say Faith Has Been Shaken Amid Pandemic, Other Tragedies ↗Survey of 6,485 U.S. adults, Sept. 20-26, 2021: 44% + 42% “sometimes bad things just happen”; 80% believers who say most suffering comes from people, not God; 14% of adults (15% of believers) say suffering sometimes indicates there is no God; 4% believers who say all or most suffering is punishment. Chapter 1 (https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/11/23/views-on-human-suffering-and-gods-role-in-it/): 61% thought about big questions at least some, 23% a lot; atheists 68% and agnostics 61% “very well”; 71% grateful, 4 in 10 want to help.
  2. The Problem of Evil (Michael Tooley) and The Concept of Evil (Todd Calder) ↗Section 7: Plantinga on theodicies (“tepid, shallow and ultimately frivolous”); Hick’s soul-making theodicy and objections (horrendous suffering, animals, children, early death); free will theodicy and objections (natural evils; almost everyone would prevent heinous acts if they could). Concept of Evil entry (https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/concept-evil/): natural evil vs moral evil (hurricanes and toothaches; murder and lying); the problem of evil as accounting for evil in a world created by an all-powerful, all-knowing, all-good God.
  3. The Logical Problem of Evil (James R. Beebe) and The Evidential Problem of Evil (Nick Trakakis) ↗Mackie 1955; Plantinga’s free will defense “widely agreed” to describe a logically possible state of affairs, which Mackie conceded; Hick 1977 soul-making. Evidential entry (https://iep.utm.edu/evil-evi/): Rowe 1979 fawn case; Rowe does not claim to prove such suffering is pointless.
  4. Skeptical Theism (Timothy Perrine) ↗Reintroduced in a 1984 paper by Stephen Wykstra; parent and infant analogy; moral objections (why intervene?) and skeptical theists’ responses.
  5. Harold Kushner, author of ‘When Bad Things Happen to Good People,’ dies at 88 ↗Kushner wrote the book after losing his first-born child; “God would like people to get what they deserve in life, but He cannot always arrange it”; on controlling how we respond. Publisher page (https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/96404/when-bad-things-happen-to-good-people-by-harold-s-kushner/): son diagnosed at three with a degenerative disease, expected to live only until his early teens. Pew (2021) dates the book to 1981.
  6. Stem cell divisions, somatic mutations, cancer etiology, and cancer prevention ↗17 cancer types in 69 countries (median correlation 0.80 with stem cell divisions); random replication errors responsible for two-thirds of the mutations in human cancers; importance of early detection and prevention. Earlier paper: Tomasetti and Vogelstein, Science (2015), doi:10.1126/science.1260825 (correlation 0.81; majority of variation due to “bad luck”). Counterpoint, a reply to the 2015 paper: Wu and colleagues, Nature (2016), doi:10.1038/nature16166 (intrinsic factors contribute only modestly; cancer risk heavily influenced by extrinsic factors).
  7. Victims, Vignettes, and Videos: Meta-Analytic and Experimental Evidence That Emotional Impact Enhances the Derogation of Innocent Victims ↗Describes Lerner and Simmons (1966, doi:10.1037/h0023562): observers who expected the shocks to continue rated the victim less favorably; meta-analysis of 55 studies; larger effects in impactful contexts; recent evidence inconsistent.
  8. The ontogeny of fairness in seven societies ↗866 pairs of children aged 4 to 15; disadvantageous inequity aversion emerged in all populations by middle childhood. Related: Brosnan and de Waal (capuchins refused to participate after seeing a partner get a better reward for equal effort; early evolutionary origin of inequity aversion), “Monkeys reject unequal pay,” Nature (2003), doi:10.1038/nature01963.
  9. Book of Job, chapters 1, 4 and 42 (New American Bible, Revised Edition) ↗Job 1:1 “blameless and upright”; Job 4:7 Eliphaz: what innocent person perishes? (wording checked against the JPS Tanakh on Sefaria, https://www.sefaria.org/Job.4.7, “what innocent ever perished?”); Job 42:7 the friends have “not spoken rightly”. Also John 9:2-3 (https://bible.usccb.org/bible/john/9) and Luke 13:4-5, tower of Siloam (https://bible.usccb.org/bible/luke/13). Quran 2:155-156 (https://quran.com/2/155-156); Ecclesiastes 9:11, JPS 1917 translation (https://www.sefaria.org/Ecclesiastes.9.11).
  10. Evolution Resources: science and religion questions ↗“Science can neither prove nor disprove religion”; “science cannot test supernatural possibilities.” Used for the Beyond science labels.

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